NBA Finals Predictions: Does Lebron get closer to the ghost?

NBA Finals Predictions: Does Lebron get closer to the ghost?

 

 

So we're finally here, the last 7 days I've been mostly looking at old NBA Hardwood Classics because I didn't want to watch the over detailed coverage that can get shown on ESPN and FS1 when they have to find content for 7 days without any games. I also took a close look at the two teams that we all knew were going to be here on June 1st. And while doing some film work I was holding off on making my prediction although I've had my winner in my head (and heart admittedly) long before. But before I give my prediction I'm going to break down how I reached my conclusion.

 

First in and foremost, the most important factor in this finals is pace that's right PACE. Golden State is a team that wants the game around 120-25ish range. At this pace no one really has to sacrifice shots, KD gets his, Steph gets his, Klay gets some and Draymond doesn't need many shots anyway. If the games are at this pace this will tell me a few things:

1. Golden State are getting shots up within the first 15 seconds. And it tells me that the refs are calling the game close which helps GS OR Cleveland is not being aggressive on defense and are not chucking Steph and Klay off the ball when they are moving and cutting. If Cleveland is allowed by the refs to grab (and hold), elbow and bump KD, Steph and Klay when they are off the ball running around illegal screens set by Zaza (GS literally does the most illegal screens ever and they are almost never called its really crazy how the refs consistently let them get away with this) then that will throw those guys off their rhythm slightly and for shooters all it takes is just a little bump to get them off balance or to get them to take one more step (or longer or shorter) step than they are used to get them to be off and once a shooter is off it can take some time to get back on even when taking wide open shots. We saw this happen last year.
2. Also if the score is in the 120's it also tells me that Cleveland is also taking quick shots which leads into the Warriors hands. The Warriors have mastered the matador defense where Steph and Klay take a bunch risks by reaching in and aggressively playing passing lanes and ducking in to help their big's when they get posted up. And this is important because this defense which can look pedestrian at times is a sucker move like when a boxer fights with his hands down to get his opponent to throw his hands so he can counter. GS theory when playing defense like this it's a win-win for them. If they get a steal, great! If they give up an open shot? Great! Because even if the other team scores on an uncontested shot the Warriors are willing to bet on their ability to make shots within their offense more often than the other team not turning the ball over or making those uncontested deep shots. And they've been right in betting this way almost 95% of the time. The Warriors avg. the most steals as a team in the league and are at the top in the league in blocks as well. This is a product of the pace that they play at and the hands down hit me in the face defense that they play because the guards just risk it all to get steals and funnel guys to their bigs for blocks or to get into a shootout where they have the best shooters in the league.
3. And lastly if the score is that high for both teams it also shows me that Cleveland is not dominating the glass and the free throw line as they should. When Cleveland controls the pace and use the screen and roll to create mismatches for their iso players and the players (Lebron, Kyrie and Love mainly) take the ball to the rim either by driving or posting up Cleveland will dominate the free throw line and they should dominate the glass as well with Tristan getting a lot of boards when his man comes to help and challenge the drive or post up. If Cleveland wins these two areas we should not be seeing a 125-137 game which is not what Cleveland wants

 

So again pace is the biggest factor in this series to me but there are a few other variables that could affect the outcome. The refs and how they call game as mentioned above will be a big key. If this is a 90's Knicks vs Pacers/Heat type game (it will be no where close to that physical in any way lol but we'll just use this as a point of reference for a more physical game that favors Cleveland) then Cleveland will win rather easily. They simply have more physical players at important positions than GS so if you're a Warriors fan you are hoping for ticky tack calls early and often. But another major key is when the Warriors two best players are iso'd against on the defensive end (which they will be often) will they get the benefit of calls while guarding other all stars? Will they get into foul trouble? If they do that'll spell doom for the Warriors and with that said earlier today I thought of something interesting in regards to this topic. How many championship teams have had their best players be defensive liabilities? And Durant in most cases wouldn't be considered a liability on defense but against Lebron I believe he will be especially if Lebron is determined to post him up every time as he should. So with Iggy obviously being the better defensive option for Lebron how does that affect Durant? Will he play less or will they move him to guard Kevin Love who can also put him under the basket if he decides to post up? This could be an interesting dynamic to see especially if Steve Kerr is not on the bench and these decisions are left up to Mike Brown. But back to my question I struggled to think of many championship teams whose best player was a defensive liability, the latest team with such a player was Dallas and Dirk but we all know they really shouldn't have won if Miami and mainly Lebron played up to their abilities. But after Dallas I had to go way back to Magic and the Lakers in the 80's to find such a player and team, and Magic was the best controller of the game ever and that's how he offset his defensive issues. Durant or Steph are no where near that class when it comes to controlling the game so when these guys get iso'd and have to play D how much will it take out of them on the offensive end and will they be able to stay on the floor and not get in foul trouble? These are big questions that I believe the Warriors have to answer.

 

And lastly I believe another huge factor will of course be the benches. Now player for player the benches are probably even but to me this is going to come down to how the benches are used. Cleveland likes to go to D Will, Shump, Frye, Korver and Bron to start the second and fourth quarters and this is one of my favorite lineups for the Cavs because Bron gets to play the 4 where he usually has a quickness advantage and he can play downhill like Karl Malone. With D Will playing Stockton and having Kyle Korver coming off of screens and Shump making random cuts with Channing Frye spotting up and taking the big out of the lane. This lineup is very productive for Cleveland and when they can also bring in Richard Jefferson for energy and Derrick Williams for versatility. Now GS has studs too of the bench with one of my favorite players in Shaun Livingston, this lanky dude can just pull up from 15 on just about anybody and I think it would benefit the Warriors to find ways to get him more minutes especially if Klay continues to struggle shooting like he has this playoffs. Ian Clark is a good spark as well but outside of him and Shaun (and Javele) I don't see much that Cleveland will be worried about. What benefits the Warriors is that one of their 4 all stars will be on the floor with the bench and if it's Klay for example who is struggling who is on the floor with bench he gets to be the featured man to help get him out of his funk. So the benches will be pivotal but I give Cleveland a slight edge with depth.

 

Alright! So I gave you the biggest things that I am looking at in this finals and when taking all of those things in consideration I am going with....Cleveland in 6. I believe the best iso team in the league found something in the last 3 games of the finals last year when the screened to get Steph Curry on either Lebron or Kyrie and both of those guys abused him. I don't see how that changes this year and with Ty Lue knowing how well that strategy worked last year he'll probably be looking to do the same this year and I believe he can also use this strategy with Durant guarding Lebron as well. I think the Cavs dynamic duo will get the Warriors top two into foul trouble and out of rhythm and I see Cleveland taking it on their home court in 6. Let me know what you thought of my breakdown and your predictions below!